“We should all be concerned about the future because we will have to spend the rest of our lives there.” – Charles F. Kettering
Everyone can benefit from enhanced foresight: individuals, sole proprietors, small and large businesses, government agencies, social causes, etc. Nearly every decision we make has future implications. If we aren’t thinking ahead we could very well be left behind.
Current issues and future positioning shouldn’t be dealt with in isolation. With the right approach it’s possible to tackle today’s challenges while simultaneously building a path into the future that creates opportunities while avoiding risk.
There isn’t a single predetermined future with one path leading directly to it, but rather a broad lane through which the future travels with several potential future states. The goal is narrow that lane as much as possible and develop strategies that allow us to maneuver within it. This permits us to adapt as situations unfold and the fog burns off while staying on course towards our objectives.
Repeatable perfect prediction is unrealistic. There are far too may variables and unknowns awaiting us, especially in the distant future, to consistently identify precise events and conditions with presently available imperfect information. Our goal; therefore, isn’t unattainable perfect prediction, but informed preparedness. We don’t have to be one hundred percent right, just close enough to stay within a range that favorably positions us for what’s to come.
There are no facts from the future. We’re therefore dependent on assumptions with varying degrees of probability. Question everything and go where the evidence leads.
Outdated and misguided paradigms, assumptions, beliefs, and biases are among the greatest impediments to foresight development. Keep an open mind, update your thinking, seek multiple perspectives, and maintain objectivity.
Change is inevitable. Know it’s coming and prepare for it.
Systems thinking is crucial. Explore relationships between the past, present, and future. Examine links between the status quo and emerging developments. Investigate connections within and across systems to illuminate sources of change and emerging opportunities and risk.
Diversity is your friend. Seek multiple perspectives. Look at issues from several angles. As General George S. Patton said, “If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.”
Curiosity is essential. Explore how things work. Ask why and why not. Challenge the status quo. Think through scenarios of how the future might unfold.
Foresight development must lead to strategy. Thinking isn’t enough. Knowing isn’t enough. Action is required.
There are three basic strategies for dealing with issues in the future: influence, adapt, and avoid. Shape it if you can, flow with it if you must, or go around it and make it irrelevant.
Create strategies that work no matter what happens. Find solutions that solve multiple problems. Think through the implications to avoid unintended consequences.
One of the greatest challenges in foreseeing the future is not knowing what will happen, but when and where it will happen, and what the magnitude will be. You may be positive something is coming, but if you can’t provide details your warnings may be dismissed. Filling in the gaps, quantifying the impact, and prioritizing the possibilities are crucial elements of foresight development.
Garbage in = garbage out. Verify your sources. Reject biased, incomplete, and outdated information. Follow the facts.
If you’re wrong, admit it. Learn from it and do better next time.