Any serious research or investigation requires a guiding methodology. This is certainty true of future studies. Just as a map is used for a trek into the wilderness, we need a framework to help navigate and understand our journey into the future. The future is a very big place and without such a guide it’s easy to get lost and overwhelmed by all there is to see. The framework keeps us on track and focused on what’s truly meaningful to our interests.
Various future-looking models have been produced by government agencies, corporations, academia, think tanks, and futurists. Some of these are very good, but others vary in quality and practicality. Some are specific to a particular discipline or industry while others are more adaptable to a range of interests. Some focus just on foresight development while others extend into future strategies. Although these approaches vary in format and terminology they generally follow a common flow that starts with the present and investigates how the future unfolds over time.
We’ve incorporated best practices and lessons learned into our approach for foresight development – the Future Discovery Framework™. This framework is designed for use by nearly anyone for any interest and is tailorable for specific situations. Because the whole reason we study the future is to develop strategies to position for it, we’ve extended the framework to address this area, as well as follow-on activities. The Future Discovery Framework™ consists of six phases.
Frame the study. This phase get us organized and ready to work. It defines the who, what, where, when, how, and why of the effort. It establishes the purpose of the investigation and sets manageable boundaries. It also outlines study approaches and resource requirements. This first phase sets the stage for all activities that follow.
Assess the present. Since the future is unknown, we start with what we do know – the past and present. The system or area of interest is examined and key functions are identified. We then take a systems view to understand what currently enables, supports, accelerates, blocks, or resists those functions. These are the things that drive the system or area of interest. Trends are examined to determine the current direction things are headed along with momentum and magnitude. This gives us a baseline of where things stand today. These findings provide a launch pad for entry into the next phase.
Forecast. Forecasting extends the baseline into the future. It examines each driver, and associated trend data, to determine how the baseline might change over time. Forecasting takes into account changing conditions, new innovations, shifting social perspectives, government actions, competition, emerging opportunities, potential risks, and similar issues. ‘What if’ scenarios are explored along with their implications. Basically we’re looking at how the baseline and its trends might be bent going forward and what drivers may increase or decrease in influence.
Develop scenarios and alternative futures. In this phase we roll up the forecasts, examine the interactions between them, and plot paths into the future. Scenarios are generated that explore how, as the future unfolds, the paths merge and break apart, accelerate and decelerate, dead end or circle back, and lead to alternative future end states. This is tested through war gaming and similar exercises. We end up with a description of the alternative ends states with associated probabilities, and a map of how that end state was reached.
Create strategy. By looking at the map created in the preceding phase, we can identify desired end states and paths, and branching points representing events, conditions, and decisions that steer the future along a certain course. Each branching point provides an opportunity to position, which drives strategy development. The branching points also offer a place for monitoring signals that indicate which direction the future is headed. These are incorporated into specific actions supporting the overall strategy.
Monitor, adjust, and improve. As the future unfolds, the branching points are monitored for signs of change and commitment to a given path. This triggers strategy actions or may require that strategy be revisited. Drastic changes may drive a new foresight development effort to ensure the picture is accurate and relevant.
Also within the phase we look for opportunities to improve. At the completion of a study, participants provide feedback on how to improve the framework and make the process better. The ultimate feedback is received as events unfold, which prove or disprove study findings. This offers an opportunity to make adjustments and do better next time.
The Future Discovery Framework™ is our default approach for exploring the future. Other approaches, such as backcasting, are also used when appropriate. Backcasting starts with an end state, typically one that’s desired or to be avoided, and traces back to the present to determine what needs to happen to realize that state. It employs the same basic tools and techniques as a forward-looking approach, but from a different angle. We additionally use other approaches and specialized applications of the Future Discovery Framework™, such as innovation evolution, for certain projects.
The Future Discovery Framework™ was purposely designed to be tailored for an individual’s or organization’s specific situation. You can employ it through a formal, rigorous process or just run through it in your head. You can execute it using sophisticated computer models or basic office applications and a white board. Use it as is or build upon it. Make it your own and use it however works best for you. For a more in-depth description of the framework please consider our e-book.